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Please read the important information below before continuing to our website.  

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THIS WEBSITE IS AIMED AT CLIENTS IN FINLAND WHO QUALIFY AS PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS OR PROFESSIONAL INVESTORS

This website is published by Lyxor International Asset Management (LIAM), a French asset management company approved by the French Financial Markets Authority (Autorité des Marchés Financiers, 17 place de la Bourse, 75082 Paris Cedex 02) under the UCITS (2009/65/EC) and AIFM (2011/31/EU) directives.

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This website is subject to French and Finnish law.

 

A professional client for the purposes of the MiFID (2004/39/EC) and the AIFMD (2011/31/EU) as implemented in Finland is one of the following:

-         an entity required to be authorised or regulated to operate in the financial markets. The following list includes all authorised entities carrying out the characteristic activities of the entities mentioned, whether authorised by an EEA State or a third country and whether or not authorised by reference to a directive:

·            an investment firm, a credit institution, a fund management company, an alternative investment fund manager, a depositary;

·            a stock exchange, an options exchange, a clearing entity;

·            a central securities depository;

·            an insurance company, a pension insurance company, a pension fund;

·            an entity that deals exclusively on own account in financial derivatives for the sole purpose of hedging positions on derivatives markets or deals for the account of other members of those markets or makes prices for them and is guaranteed by clearing members of the same markets;

·            a business entity dealing in commodities and/or commodity derivatives on own account;

·            any other institutional investor;

 

 

-          a large undertaking, meeting two of the following size requirements according to the financial statements of the last preceding financial period:

 

·            balance sheet total of at least EUR 20,000,000

·            net turnover of at least EUR 40,000,000

·            own funds of at least EUR 2,000,000

 

-         the State of Finland, the State Treasury, the province of Åland, foreign national and regional governments as well as foreign public bodies managing public debt;

-         the European Central Bank, the Bank of Finland and similar foreign central banks as well as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and similar international associations and organisations;

-         institutional investors that, as their main field of activity, invest in financial instruments;

-         other clients that have in writing requested to be treated as a professional client and, after having received written information on the limited protection afforded to professional clients confirmed in writing their understanding of the same, provided that the investment firm has assessed that the client is capable of making independent investment decisions and understands the related risks and, furthermore, that the client meets at least two of the following criteria:

·            the client has carried out transactions, in significant size, on the relevant market at an average frequency of 10 per quarter over the previous four quarters;

·            the size of the client’s financial instrument portfolio exceeds EUR 500,000;

·            the client works or has worked in the financial sector for at least one year in a professional position, which requires knowledge of the transactions or services envisaged.

 

A professional investor for the purposes of the UCITS (2009/65/EC) as implemented in Finland is one of the following:

-         an entity required to be authorised or regulated to operate in the financial markets, as defined above under ‘professional client’;

-         a large undertaking, meeting the requirements set out above for professional clients

-         the State of Finland, the State Treasury, the province of Åland, foreign national and regional governments as well as foreign public bodies managing public debt;

-         the European Central Bank, the Bank of Finland and similar foreign central banks as well as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and similar international associations and organisations;

-         institutional investors that, as their main field of activity, invest in financial instruments;

-         other investors that have notified the fund management company, UCITS or its representative in writing that they, on the basis of their expertise and experience in investing activities, are professional investors, and meet at least two of the following criteria:

·            the investor has carried out transactions, in significant size, on the relevant market at an average frequency of 10 per quarter over the previous four quarters;

·            the size of the investor’s financial instrument portfolio exceeds EUR 500,000;

·            the investor works or has worked in the financial sector for at least one year in a professional position, which requires knowledge of the transactions or services envisaged.

 

The above definitions are only extracts and are as such not exhaustive. For further details please refer to the Finnish Investment Services Act (747/2012) and the Finnish Investment Funds Act (48/1999).

 

Marketing Restrictions and Implications

 

Lyxor UCITS compliant Exchange Traded Funds (Lyxor UCITS ETFs) referred to on this website are open ended mutual investment funds (i) established under French law and approved by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (the French Financial Markets Authority), or (ii) established under Luxembourg law and approved by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (the Luxembourg Financial Supervisory Committee). Most, if not all, of the protections provided by the Finnish regulatory system generally and for funds authorised in Finland do not apply to these exchange traded funds (ETFs). In particular, investors should note that holdings in this product will not be covered by the provisions of the Financial Services Compensation Scheme or by the Finnish Investors’ Compensation Fund.

 

This website is exclusively intended for persons who are not "US persons", as such term is defined in Regulation S or the US Securities Act 1933, as amended, and who are not physically present in the US. This website does not constitute an offer or an invitation to purchase any securities in the United States or in any other jurisdiction in which such offer or invitation is not authorised or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Potential users of this website are requested to inform themselves about and to observe any such restrictions.

 

Index Replication Process

 

Lyxor UCITS ETFs follow both physical and synthetic index replication process.

 

However, most Lyxor UCITS ETFs follow synthetic replication process. This consists of entering into a derivative transaction (a ‘Performance Swap’, as defined below) with a counterparty that provides complete and effective exposure to its benchmark index. Lyxor has adopted this methodology in order to minimise tracking error, optimise transaction costs and reduce operational risks.

 

A Performance Swap is a contractual agreement which is negotiated over-the-counter (OTC) between two parties: the Lyxor UCITS ETF and its counterparty. From a risk perspective, each Performance Swap ranks equally with other senior unsecured obligations of the counterparty, such as common bonds (i.e., same rights to payments). In the Performance Swap, the counterparty of the Lyxor UCITS ETF commits to pay the Lyxor UCITS ETF a variable return based on a pre-determined benchmark index, instead of a fixed stream of income (as in bonds). At the same time, the counterparty will receive from the Lyxor UCITS ETF the performance and any related revenues generated by the basket's assets (excluding the value of the Performance Swap) held by the Lyxor UCITS ETF. Information provided on individual ETFs includes data on the basket relating to the ETF and the percentage value of the basket represented by each asset. The information is relevant to the closing values on the date given. 

 

Investment Risks

 

The Lyxor UCITS ETFs described on this website are not suitable for everyone. Investors' capital is at risk. Investors should not deal in this product unless they understand, having obtained independent professional advice where necessary, its nature, terms and conditions, and the extent of their exposure to risk. The value of the product can go down as well as up and can be subject to volatility due to factors such as price changes in the underlying instrument and interest rates. If a fund is quoted in a different currency to the index, currency risks exist.

 

Prior to any investment in any Lyxor UCITS ETF, you should make your own appraisal of the risks from a financial, legal and tax perspective, without relying exclusively on the information provided by us. We recommend that you consult your own independent professional advisors (including legal, tax, financial or accounting advisors, as appropriate).

 

Specific Risks

 

·         Capital at Risk. ETFs are tracking instruments: Their risk profile is similar to a direct investment in the Benchmark Index. Investors’ capital is fully at risk and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Investments are not covered by the provisions of the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (“FSCS”), the Finnish Investors’ Compensation Fund or any similar scheme.

·         Counterparty Risk. Investors may be exposed to risks resulting from the use of an OTC Swap with Societe Generale. Physical ETFs may have Counterparty Risk resulting from the use of a Securities Lending Programme.

·         Currency Risk. ETFs may be exposed to currency risk if the ETF or Benchmark Index holdings are denominated in a currency different to that of the Benchmark Index they are tracking. This means that exchange rate fluctuations could have a negative or positive effect on returns.

·         Replication Risk. ETFs are designed to replicate the performance of the Benchmark Index. Unexpected events relating to the constituents of the Benchmark Index may impact the Index provider’s ability to calculate the Benchmark Index, which may affect the ETF’s ability to replicate the Benchmark Index efficiently. This may create Tracking Error in the ETF.

·         Underlying Risk. The Benchmark Index of a Lyxor ETF may be complex and volatile. When investing in commodities, the Benchmark Index is calculated with reference to commodity futures contracts which can expose investors to risks related to the cost of carry and transportation. ETFs exposed to Emerging Markets carry a greater risk of potential loss than investment in Developed Markets as they are exposed to a wide range of unpredictable Emerging Market risks.

·         Liquidity Risk. On-exchange liquidity may be limited as a result of a suspension in the underlying market represented by the Benchmark Index tracked by the ETF; a failure in the systems of one of the relevant stock exchanges, Societe Generale or other Market Maker systems; or an abnormal trading situation or event. 

 

The securities can be neither offered in nor transferred to the United States.

 

Tax

 

Any statement in relation to tax, where made, is generic and non-exhaustive and is based on our understanding of the laws and practice in force as of the date of this document and is subject to any changes in law and practice and the interpretation and application thereof, which changes could be made with retroactive effect. Any such statement must not be construed as tax advice and must not be relied upon. The tax treatment of investments will, inter alia, depend on an individual’s circumstances. Investors must consult with an appropriate professional tax adviser to ascertain for themselves the taxation consequences of acquiring, holding and/or disposing of any investments mentioned on this website. 

Further information on the risk factors are available in the [Risk Warning – link to risk page] section of the website.

 

Any fund prospectus and supplements are available at www.lyxoretf.fi. Information given about the past performance of the funds is no guarantee of future performance. No investment decision should be taken without reading the fund prospectus and any fund supplement of the fund concerned.

 

Although the content of the website is based upon information that LIAM consider reliable or comes from sources that LIAM consider reliable, LIAM have not verified such information. Lyxor makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of any information.  Any reproduction, disclosure or dissemination of the materials available on the website is prohibited.

 

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04 Oct 2019

Five ways to position your bond portfolio into year-end

Valuations in the global fixed income market are looking increasingly stretched as we enter Q4, with close to $15trn* negative-yielding debt outstanding. The global economy is slowing, while heightened geopolitical tensions increase the risk of recession. With no major breakthroughs, sovereign bond yields are unlikely to rise meaningfully from their current level. Fixed income investors are increasingly turning towards riskier assets and taking on more duration risk in their hunt for yields. 

Negative yielding debt close to record highs (market value in USD trn)*

chart1

*Source: Lyxor International Asset Management, Bloomberg, data as at 30/09/2019

Looking ahead, selectivity and asset quality will remain key to sustaining performance in a bond portfolio in Q4.

With all that in mind, here we look at five ways to position your bond portfolio into year-end.

 1. US rates: Positive on the front end of the curve

Despite persistent uncertainties, US data have continued to show strength. The steady pace of job creation, the rise in core CPI and resilient consumers are all factors that should avert a recession for now. The market is quite pessimistic on the US outlook and still prices in an 80% chance that the Fed Funds rates will fall below 1.5% by the end of 2020.

History shows that monetary policy rate adjustments greater than 75bps have only happened ahead of a recession. Recession probability models derived from the US yield curve suggest just under 40% chance of recession over the next 4-6 quarters (see chart). Should the Fed be correct in its current assessment that only mid-cycle adjustments are required, fixed income assets will soon look extremely overpriced, which would leave the long end of the US curve at risk.

On this basis, we maintain our preference for short maturities in US Treasuries. We suspect the US yield curve will retain its flattening bias in the near term. A steepening would materialise if the Fed were forced into to more aggressive easing. 

US recession risk has soared over recent months
Probability of recession calculated from the US yield curve

chart 2

Note: Shaded bars indicate recessions. Based on the spread between the 3 month Treasury bill rate and 10 year Treasury bond rate.
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Haver Analytics. Data as at 30 September 2019

2. EUR rates & curve: Hunt for yield and carry will be key

Investor perception of Europe’s economic outlook remains negative. While the ECB has sent signals that it could provide renewed monetary support, it will only do more in the event of severe deterioration in the inflation outlook. Bold fiscal policy expansion measures could also sustain demand, but we are not there yet.

Given the outlook, the hunt for yield should remain a key driver of performance in the euro area’s bond market in the medium term. The restart of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Program (APP) should be supportive for peripheral bonds and Italy in particular. Italian bonds’ performance lagged other peripheral bond markets and they offer good carry. Despite structural political uncertainties in Italy, the newly instated pro-Europe government is likely to push for greater budget stability. This should avert rating downgrade risks for now and support flows into the market.

Even if it is unlikely that inflation expectations move much higher in the near term, there are reasons to hold inflation-linked bonds. The inflation breakeven rate is currently priced well below surveys of long-term inflation expectations. Moreover, linkers may well be included in the next ECB’s Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) set to begin from November – more details will emerge at the 24 October meeting. Buying flows in a context of relatively low supply would be supportive factors particularly for French and Italian inflation linked bonds. 

ECB Balance sheet to expand further

chart 3

Source: Lyxor International Asset Management, Bloomberg, data as at 30/09/2019

3. UK rates: Higher inflation ahead

Given the pace of change in UK politics and future Brexit scenarios, it is difficult to have strong convictions on UK assets. Political developments could trigger renewed negative sentiment and hit the pound. In that case, inflation expectations could surge, at least over the next few months, which could support UK inflation-linked bonds. In the longer run, we remain concerned that the economic slowdown and fiscal easing will weigh on all assets.

4. Credit: Favour HY over IG both in Europe and the US 

We are still positive on the outlook for corporate credit and high yield. The latter should be underpinned by attractive risk-adjusted returns, the dovish monetary policy stance and low default rates on both sides of the Atlantic (see chart). 

In Europe, the corporate credit market has seen record issuance since the beginning of the year with volumes currently standing over €520bn. This record level has already been absorbed by strong market demand. The asset class has benefited from continuous inflows stemming from yield-starved investors. With sovereign bond yields deeply negative, such a trend is unlikely to change.  

High yield default rate remains low in the US

chart 4

Source: Lyxor International Asset Management, Macrobond, data as at 6/09/2019. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. 

5. EM debt: Prefer hard currency

Monetary easing around the world should continue to bolster the performance of emerging-market debt, which tends to be less volatile than emerging equities and remains attractive in terms of real yields. Subdued inflation pressure also offers ample scope for rate cuts. A simple modelling using EM forex index, U.S. Treasuries 10-year yield, commodity prices, macro momentum, and China credit impulse point to a spread level justified by macro fundamentals (see chart). Trade tensions should continue to affect the outlook for EM currencies, hence our preference for hard currency bonds. 

Fundamentals justify EM debt spread levels

chart 5

Source: Lyxor International Asset Management, Macrobond, data as at 15/09/2019. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. 


Risk Warning

This document is for the exclusive use of investors acting on their own account and categorised either as “Eligible Counterparties” or “Professional Clients” within the meaning of Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2014/65/EU. These products comply with the UCITS Directive (2009/65/EC). Société Générale and Lyxor International Asset Management (LIAM) recommend that investors read carefully the “investment risks” section of the product’s documentation (prospectus and KIID). The prospectus and KIID are available free of charge on www.lyxoretf.com, and upon request to client-services-etf@lyxor.com.

Except for the United-Kingdom, where this communication is issued in the UK by Lyxor Asset Management UK LLP, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK under Registration Number 435658, this communication is issued by Lyxor International Asset Management (LIAM), a French management company authorized by the Autorité des marchés financiers and placed under the regulations of the UCITS (2014/91/EU) and AIFM (2011/61/EU) Directives. Société Générale is a French credit institution (bank) authorised by the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de résolution (the French Prudential Control Authority).

The products mentioned are the object of market-making contracts, the purpose of which is to ensure the liquidity of the products on the London Stock Exchange, assuming normal market conditions and normally functioning computer systems. Units of a specific UCITS ETF managed by an asset manager and purchased on the secondary market cannot usually be sold directly back to the asset manager itself. Investors must buy and sell units on a secondary market with the assistance of an intermediary (e.g. a stockbroker) and may incur fees for doing so. In addition, investors may pay more than the current net asset value when buying units and may receive less than the current net asset value when selling them. Updated composition of the product’s investment portfolio is available on www.lyxoretf.com. In addition, the indicative net asset value is published on the Reuters and Bloomberg pages of the product, and might also be mentioned on the websites of the stock exchanges where the product is listed.

Prior to investing in the product, investors should seek independent financial, tax, accounting and legal advice. It is each investor’s responsibility to ascertain that it is authorised to subscribe, or invest into this product. This document is of a commercial nature and not of a regulatory nature. This material is of a commercial nature and not a regulatory nature. This document does not constitute an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, from Société Générale, Lyxor Asset Management (together with its affiliates, Lyxor AM) or any of their respective subsidiaries to purchase or sell the product referred to herein.

Research disclaimer

Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) or its employees may have or maintain business relationships with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that LIAM and its employees may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see appendix at the end of this report for the analyst(s) certification(s), important disclosures and disclaimers. Alternatively, visit our global research disclosure website www.lyxoretf.com/compliance.

Conflicts of interest 

This research contains the views, opinions and recommendations of Lyxor International Asset Management (“LIAM”) Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists. To the extent that this research contains trade ideas based on macro views of economic market conditions or relative value, it may differ from the fundamental Cross Asset and ETF Research opinions and recommendations contained in Cross Asset and ETF Research sector or company research reports and from the views and opinions of other departments of LIAM and its affiliates. Lyxor Cross Asset and ETF research analysts and/or strategists routinely consult with LIAM sales and portfolio management personnel regarding market information including, but not limited to, pricing, spread levels and trading activity of ETFs tracking equity, fixed income and commodity indices. Trading desks may trade, or have traded, as principal on the basis of the research analyst(s) views and reports. Lyxor has mandatory research policies and procedures that are reasonably designed to (i) ensure that purported facts in research reports are based on reliable information and (ii) to prevent improper selective or tiered dissemination of research reports. In addition, research analysts receive compensation based, in part, on the quality and accuracy of their analysis, client feedback, competitive factors and LIAM’s total revenues including revenues from management fees and investment advisory fees and distribution fees.

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